Player breakdown
Carnell Tate
Ohio State · 2026 Draft Class
6-2192 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~21
EliteAll-American x1All-Conference x1
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: $2.9M
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
81%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 13 | 18 | 264 | 1 | 14.7 | 20.3 |
| 2024 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 15 | 52 | 733 | 4 | 14.1 | 48.9 |
| 2025 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 11 | 51 | 875 | 9 | 17.2 | 79.5 |
| Career | 39 | 121 | 1,872 | 14 | 15.5 | 48.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
16%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
10
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.173
BMI 24.6 — ideal frame for NFL WR (192 lbs)+0.203
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.97 — elite recruit at elite school+0.202
Top Negative Factors
-6.4 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.742
Accounted for 0.00 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.423
Improvement accelerating (+2.3) — getting better faster each year-0.393