Player breakdown
Garrett Wilson
Ohio St. · 2022 Draft Class
6-0183 lbs1st round, 10th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~26
EliteAll-American x11000+ NFL
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
78%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | NYJ | 17 | 12 | 147 | 83 | 1,103 | 13.3 | 4 | 64.9 |
| 2023 | NYJ | 17 | 17 | 168 | 95 | 1,042 | 11 | 3 | 61.3 |
| 2024 | NYJ | 17 | 17 | 154 | 101 | 1,104 | 10.9 | 7 | 64.9 |
| 2025 | NYJ | 7 | 7 | 59 | 36 | 395 | 11 | 4 | 56.4 |
| Career | 58 | 53 | 528 | 315 | 3,644 | 11.6 | 18 | 62.8 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 14 | 30 | 432 | 5 | 14.4 | 30.9 |
| 2020 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 8 | 43 | 723 | 6 | 16.8 | 90.4 |
| 2021 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 11 | 70 | 1,058 | 12 | 15.1 | 96.2 |
| Career | 33 | 143 | 2,213 | 23 | 15.5 | 67.1 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
78%
ML model output
Context Prob
67%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.323
0.70 TDs/game — dominant red-zone role in college+0.219
BMI 24.8 — ideal frame for NFL WR (183 lbs)+0.214
Top Negative Factors
Physical production synergy-0.501
Recruit dominator synergy-0.273
Improvement accelerating (+1.4) — getting better faster each year-0.263