Player breakdown
Chris Olave
Ohio St. · 2022 Draft Class
6-0187 lbs1st round, 11th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~26
EliteAll-American x21000+ NFL
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
78%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | NOR | 15 | 9 | 119 | 72 | 1,042 | 14.5 | 4 | 69.5 |
| 2023 | NOR | 16 | 11 | 138 | 87 | 1,123 | 12.9 | 5 | 70.2 |
| 2024 | NOR | 8 | 8 | 44 | 32 | 400 | 12.5 | 1 | 50 |
| 2025 | NOR | 16 | 16 | 156 | 100 | 1,163 | 11.6 | 9 | 72.7 |
| Career | 55 | 44 | 457 | 291 | 3,728 | 12.8 | 19 | 67.8 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 14 | 12 | 197 | 3 | 16.4 | 14.1 |
| 2019 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 14 | 49 | 849 | 12 | 17.3 | 60.6 |
| 2020 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 7 | 50 | 729 | 7 | 14.6 | 104.1 |
| 2021 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 12 | 65 | 936 | 13 | 14.4 | 78 |
| Career | 47 | 176 | 2,711 | 35 | 15.4 | 57.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
71%
ML model output
Context Prob
78%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.265
Physical production synergy+0.294
BMI 25.4 — ideal frame for NFL WR (187 lbs)+0.231
Top Negative Factors
+3.3 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.734
Accounted for 1.89 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.432
Improvement accelerating (+3.8) — getting better faster each year-0.304