Player breakdown
Charles Rogers
Michigan St. · 2003 Draft Class
6-2202 lbs1st round, 2nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~45
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
46%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | DET | 5 | 5 | 52 | 22 | 243 | 11 | 3 | 48.6 |
| 2004 | DET | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2005 | DET | 9 | 3 | 31 | 14 | 197 | 14.1 | 1 | 21.9 |
| Career | 15 | 9 | 84 | 36 | 440 | 12.2 | 4 | 29.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 11 | 57 | 1,200 | 12 | 21.1 | 109.1 |
| 2002 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 12 | 68 | 1,351 | 13 | 19.9 | 112.6 |
| 2023 | San Jose State | MWC | 13 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 7.5 | 1.2 |
| Career | 36 | 127 | 2,566 | 26 | 20.2 | 71.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
22%
ML model output
Context Prob
90%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Improvement accelerating (+0.1) — getting better faster each year+0.334
BMI 25.9 — ideal frame for NFL WR (202 lbs)+0.230
Speed × production: 145.6 — elite combined athletic output+0.206
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.566
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.397
Recruit dominator synergy-0.242