Player breakdown
Chase Lyman
California · 2005 Draft Class
6-3217 lbs4th round, 118th overallAge: ~44
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
20%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | California | Pac-10 | 11 | 19 | 313 | 2 | 16.5 | 28.5 |
| 2001 | California | Pac-10 | 9 | 9 | 106 | 1 | 11.8 | 11.8 |
| 2003 | California | Pac-10 | 10 | 12 | 256 | 1 | 21.3 | 25.6 |
| 2004 | California | Pac-10 | 4 | 14 | 414 | 5 | 29.6 | 103.5 |
| Career | 34 | 54 | 1,089 | 9 | 20.2 | 32.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
16%
ML model output
Context Prob
47%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 26% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.085
Recruit dominator synergy+0.462
Class YPR rank: top 4% — elite per-target efficiency+0.207
Top Negative Factors
-24.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.759
0.26 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.507
Accounted for 1.25 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.413