Player breakdown
Derek Hagan
Arizona St. · 2006 Draft Class
6-2208 lbs3rd round, 82nd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~41
EliteDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
82%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | MIA | 16 | 0 | 37 | 21 | 221 | 10.5 | 1 | 13.8 |
| 2007 | MIA | 16 | 1 | 59 | 29 | 373 | 12.9 | 2 | 23.3 |
| 2008 | MIA | 4 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 51 | 17 | 0 | 12.8 |
| 2009 | NYG | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 101 | 12.6 | 1 | 6.3 |
| 2010 | NYG | 7 | 4 | 43 | 24 | 223 | 9.3 | 1 | 31.9 |
| 2011 | 2TM | 10 | 3 | 42 | 24 | 252 | 10.5 | 1 | 25.2 |
| 2011 | OAK | 6 | 2 | 20 | 11 | 114 | 10.4 | 0 | 19 |
| 2011 | BUF | 4 | 1 | 22 | 13 | 138 | 10.6 | 1 | 34.5 |
| 2012 | OAK | 14 | 2 | 36 | 20 | 259 | 13 | 0 | 18.5 |
| 2014 | TEN | 16 | 3 | 34 | 19 | 254 | 13.4 | 1 | 15.9 |
| Career | 109 | 16 | 307 | 172 | 1,986 | 11.5 | 8 | 18.2 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | Arizona State | Pac-10 | 14 | 32 | 405 | 0 | 12.7 | 28.9 |
| 2003 | Arizona State | Pac-10 | 12 | 66 | 1,076 | 9 | 16.3 | 89.7 |
| 2004 | Arizona State | Pac-10 | 12 | 83 | 1,248 | 10 | 15 | 104 |
| 2005 | Arizona State | Pac-10 | 12 | 77 | 1,210 | 8 | 15.7 | 100.8 |
| Career | 50 | 258 | 3,939 | 27 | 15.3 | 78.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
83%
ML model output
Context Prob
82%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 10% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.215
Physical production synergy+0.495
Recruit dominator synergy+0.392
Top Negative Factors
0.10 TDs/catch — high-value usage pattern-0.210
Improvement accelerating (+2.1) — getting better faster each year-0.178
Team averaged 41.8 pass attempts/game — pass-heavy spread offensive system-0.176