Player breakdown
Reggie Williams
Washington · 2004 Draft Class
6-4229 lbs1st round, 9th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~43
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
44%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | JAX | 16 | 15 | 54 | 27 | 268 | 9.9 | 1 | 16.8 |
| 2005 | JAX | 16 | 7 | 63 | 35 | 445 | 12.7 | 0 | 27.8 |
| 2006 | JAX | 16 | 14 | 91 | 52 | 616 | 11.8 | 4 | 38.5 |
| 2007 | JAX | 15 | 6 | 60 | 38 | 629 | 16.6 | 10 | 41.9 |
| 2008 | JAX | 16 | 11 | 63 | 37 | 364 | 9.8 | 3 | 22.8 |
| Career | 79 | 53 | 331 | 189 | 2,322 | 12.3 | 18 | 29.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Washington | Pac-10 | 11 | 55 | 973 | 3 | 17.7 | 88.5 |
| 2002 | Washington | Pac-10 | 13 | 94 | 1,454 | 11 | 15.5 | 111.8 |
| 2003 | Washington | Pac-10 | 12 | 89 | 1,109 | 8 | 12.5 | 92.4 |
| Career | 36 | 238 | 3,536 | 22 | 14.9 | 98.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
42%
ML model output
Context Prob
55%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical production synergy+0.436
35.0% TD share at small school — strong red-zone role+0.319
BMI 27.9 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (229 lbs)+0.243
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-1.231
Efficiency consistency: 1.19 — highly consistent across seasons-0.239
0.09 TDs/catch — high-value usage pattern-0.219