Player breakdown
Derrick Williams
Penn St. · 2009 Draft Class
5-11194 lbs3rd round, 82nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~40
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
13%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | DET | 11 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 52 | 8.7 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 2010 | DET | 7 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 30 | 10 | 0 | 4.3 |
| Career | 18 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 82 | 9.1 | 0 | 4.6 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Penn State | Big Ten | 7 | 22 | 289 | 1 | 13.1 | 41.3 |
| 2006 | Penn State | Big Ten | 13 | 40 | 440 | 1 | 11 | 33.8 |
| 2006 | UCLA | Pac-10 | 11 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 10.8 | 3.9 |
| 2007 | Penn State | Big Ten | 13 | 55 | 529 | 3 | 9.6 | 40.7 |
| 2008 | Penn State | Big Ten | 13 | 44 | 485 | 4 | 11 | 37.3 |
| Career | 57 | 165 | 1,786 | 9 | 10.8 | 31.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
10%
ML model output
Context Prob
33%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 15% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.136
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 0.86x — route-running independent of system+0.189
Recruit rating × conference strength: 1.00 — elite recruit at elite school+0.180
Top Negative Factors
-16.5 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.736
0.20 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.470
Physical production synergy-0.375