Player breakdown
Devard Darling
Washington St. · 2004 Draft Class
6-1213 lbs3rd round, 82nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~44
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
21%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | BAL | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 2007 | BAL | 16 | 1 | 39 | 18 | 326 | 18.1 | 3 | 20.4 |
| 2008 | KAN | 16 | 9 | 33 | 17 | 247 | 14.5 | 1 | 15.4 |
| Career | 35 | 10 | 74 | 37 | 578 | 15.6 | 4 | 16.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Florida State | ACC | 4 | 2 | 36 | 1 | 18 | 9 |
| 2002 | Washington State | Pac-10 | 13 | 54 | 800 | 11 | 14.8 | 61.5 |
| 2003 | Washington State | Pac-10 | 13 | 50 | 830 | 7 | 16.6 | 63.8 |
| Career | 30 | 106 | 1,666 | 19 | 15.7 | 55.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
58%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
0.69 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college+0.204
BMI 28.1 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (213 lbs)+0.195
Speed score 102.1 — strong weight-adjusted athleticism+0.142
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.528
+6.7 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.529
Improvement accelerating (+22.1) — getting better faster each year-0.446