Player breakdown
DeVonta Smith
Alabama · 2021 Draft Class
6-1160 lbs1st round, 10th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
EliteHeisman x1Biletnikoff x1All-American x11000+ NFL
Major awards: 3Heisman votes: 1856NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
92%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | PHI | 17 | 16 | 104 | 64 | 916 | 14.3 | 5 | 53.9 |
| 2022 | PHI | 17 | 17 | 136 | 95 | 1,196 | 12.6 | 7 | 70.4 |
| 2023 | PHI | 16 | 16 | 112 | 81 | 1,066 | 13.2 | 7 | 66.6 |
| 2024 | PHI | 13 | 13 | 89 | 68 | 833 | 12.3 | 8 | 64.1 |
| 2025 | PHI | 17 | 16 | 113 | 77 | 1,008 | 13.1 | 4 | 59.3 |
| Career | 80 | 78 | 554 | 385 | 5,019 | 13.0 | 31 | 62.7 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Alabama | SEC | 14 | 8 | 160 | 3 | 20 | 11.4 |
| 2018 | Alabama | SEC | 14 | 42 | 693 | 6 | 16.5 | 49.5 |
| 2019 | Alabama | SEC | 13 | 68 | 1,256 | 14 | 18.5 | 96.6 |
| 2020 | Alabama | SEC | 13 | 117 | 1,856 | 23 | 15.9 | 142.8 |
| Career | 54 | 235 | 3,965 | 46 | 16.9 | 73.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
85%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
8
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 33% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.089
BMI 21.1 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (160 lbs)+0.265
Physical production synergy+0.236
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+10.6) — getting better faster each year-0.489
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.428
Efficiency consistency: 1.19 — highly consistent across seasons-0.283