Player breakdown
Drew Carter
Ohio St. · 2004 Draft Class
6-4204 lbs5th round, 163rd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~45
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
11%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | CAR | 3 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 103 | 20.6 | 1 | 34.3 |
| 2006 | CAR | 14 | 2 | 51 | 28 | 357 | 12.8 | 3 | 25.5 |
| 2007 | CAR | 16 | 7 | 75 | 38 | 517 | 13.6 | 4 | 32.3 |
| Career | 33 | 9 | 141 | 71 | 977 | 13.8 | 8 | 29.6 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 10 | 6 | 75 | 0 | 12.5 | 7.5 |
| 2002 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 13 | 10 | 147 | 0 | 14.7 | 11.3 |
| 2003 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 8 | 25 | 410 | 1 | 16.4 | 51.3 |
| Career | 31 | 41 | 632 | 1 | 15.4 | 20.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
5%
ML model output
Context Prob
49%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.146
Recruit dominator synergy+0.494
7.5 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.242
Top Negative Factors
-35.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.758
0.03 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.512
Accounted for 1.12 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.416