Player breakdown
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
Iowa · 2021 Draft Class
6-0181 lbs5th round, 157th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
5%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | MIN | 8 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 116 | 23.2 | 2 | 14.5 |
| 2022 | CHI | 6 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 2023 | CAR | 17 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 | 3 |
| Career | 31 | 1 | 20 | 14 | 182 | 13.0 | 2 | 5.9 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Iowa | Big Ten | 12 | 18 | 187 | 2 | 10.4 | 15.6 |
| 2018 | Iowa | Big Ten | 12 | 23 | 361 | 3 | 15.7 | 30.1 |
| 2019 | Iowa | Big Ten | 13 | 44 | 722 | 5 | 16.4 | 55.5 |
| 2020 | Iowa | Big Ten | 7 | 25 | 345 | 3 | 13.8 | 49.3 |
| Career | 44 | 110 | 1,615 | 13 | 14.7 | 36.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
0%
ML model output
Context Prob
34%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
BMI 24.6 — ideal frame for NFL WR (181 lbs)+0.197
36.7 career ypg — limited college production+0.140
Speed score 94.0 — below average weight-adjusted athleticism+0.125
Top Negative Factors
-15.5 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.762
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.702
Physical production synergy-0.560