Player breakdown
Michael Thomas
Ohio St. · 2016 Draft Class
5-8195 lbs2nd round, 47th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~33
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
41%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | NOR | 15 | 12 | 121 | 92 | 1,137 | 12.4 | 9 | 75.8 |
| 2017 | NOR | 16 | 14 | 149 | 104 | 1,245 | 12 | 5 | 77.8 |
| 2018 | NOR | 16 | 16 | 147 | 125 | 1,405 | 11.2 | 9 | 87.8 |
| 2019 | NOR | 16 | 15 | 185 | 149 | 1,725 | 11.6 | 9 | 107.8 |
| 2020 | NOR | 7 | 5 | 55 | 40 | 438 | 11 | 0 | 62.6 |
| 2022 | NOR | 3 | 3 | 22 | 16 | 171 | 10.7 | 3 | 57 |
| 2023 | NOR | 10 | 7 | 64 | 39 | 448 | 11.5 | 1 | 44.8 |
| Career | 83 | 72 | 743 | 565 | 6,569 | 11.6 | 36 | 79.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 11 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 7.3 | 2 |
| 2014 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 15 | 54 | 799 | 9 | 14.8 | 53.3 |
| 2014 | Southern Mississippi | CUSA | 12 | 41 | 592 | 5 | 14.4 | 49.3 |
| 2015 | Southern Mississippi | CUSA | 13 | 71 | 1,391 | 14 | 19.6 | 107 |
| 2015 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 13 | 56 | 781 | 9 | 13.9 | 60.1 |
| Career | 64 | 225 | 3,585 | 37 | 15.9 | 56.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
42%
ML model output
Context Prob
38%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.273
Physical production synergy+0.462
2.0 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.287
Top Negative Factors
-13.3 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.764
Accounted for 1.50 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.434
Improvement accelerating (+62.2) — getting better faster each year-0.332