Player breakdown
J. Michael Sturdivant
Florida · 2026 Draft Class
6-3207 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~22
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: $1.2M
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
9%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | California | Pac-12 | 12 | 65 | 755 | 7 | 11.6 | 62.9 |
| 2023 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 13 | 36 | 597 | 4 | 16.6 | 45.9 |
| 2024 | UCLA | Big Ten | 11 | 22 | 315 | 2 | 14.3 | 28.6 |
| 2025 | Florida | SEC | 12 | 27 | 406 | 3 | 15 | 33.8 |
| Career | 48 | 150 | 2,073 | 16 | 13.8 | 43.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
57%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.666
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output+0.216
BMI 25.9 — ideal frame for NFL WR (207 lbs)+0.197
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 1% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.263
-22.1 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.583
Physical production synergy-0.410