Player breakdown
Jameson Williams
Alabama · 2022 Draft Class
6-2179 lbs1st round, 12th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~25
EliteAll-American x11000+ NFL
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
85%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | DET | 6 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 41 | 41 | 1 | 6.8 |
| 2023 | DET | 12 | 10 | 42 | 24 | 354 | 14.8 | 2 | 29.5 |
| 2024 | DET | 15 | 11 | 91 | 58 | 1,001 | 17.3 | 7 | 66.7 |
| 2025 | DET | 17 | 15 | 102 | 65 | 1,117 | 17.2 | 7 | 65.7 |
| Career | 50 | 36 | 244 | 148 | 2,513 | 17.0 | 17 | 50.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 11 | 6 | 112 | 1 | 18.7 | 10.2 |
| 2020 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 8 | 9 | 154 | 2 | 17.1 | 19.3 |
| 2021 | Alabama | SEC | 15 | 79 | 1,572 | 15 | 19.9 | 104.8 |
| Career | 34 | 94 | 1,838 | 18 | 19.6 | 54.1 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
60%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
6
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 33% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.154
BMI 23.0 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (179 lbs)+0.250
+52.6 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.247
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+13.0) — getting better faster each year-0.546
Physical production synergy-0.469
Recruit dominator synergy-0.300