Player breakdown
Ja'Marr Chase
LSU · 2021 Draft Class
6-0201 lbs1st round, 5th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~26
EliteBiletnikoff x1All-American x11000+ NFL
Major awards: 2Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
95%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | CIN | 17 | 17 | 128 | 81 | 1,455 | 18 | 13 | 85.6 |
| 2022 | CIN | 12 | 12 | 134 | 87 | 1,046 | 12 | 9 | 87.2 |
| 2023 | CIN | 16 | 16 | 145 | 100 | 1,216 | 12.2 | 7 | 76 |
| 2024 | CIN | 17 | 16 | 175 | 127 | 1,708 | 13.4 | 17 | 100.5 |
| 2025 | CIN | 16 | 16 | 185 | 125 | 1,412 | 11.3 | 8 | 88.3 |
| Career | 78 | 77 | 767 | 520 | 6,837 | 13.1 | 54 | 87.7 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | LSU | SEC | 13 | 23 | 313 | 3 | 13.6 | 24.1 |
| 2019 | LSU | SEC | 14 | 84 | 1,780 | 20 | 21.2 | 127.1 |
| Career | 27 | 107 | 2,093 | 23 | 19.6 | 77.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
98%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
6
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 31% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.286
Physical production synergy+0.422
BMI 27.3 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (201 lbs)+0.265
Top Negative Factors
Recruit dominator synergy-0.253
Improvement accelerating (+4.7) — getting better faster each year-0.224
Team averaged 40.5 pass attempts/game — pass-heavy spread offensive system-0.149