Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jarvis Landry
Jarvis Landry

Player breakdown

Jarvis Landry

LSU · 2014 Draft Class

5-11205 lbs2nd round, 63rd overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~33
Elite1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

88%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2014MIA1611112847589547.4
2015MIA16141661101,15710.5472.3
2016MIA1616131941,13612.1471
2017MIA16161611129878.8961.7
2018CLE16141498197612461
2019CLE1616138831,17414.1673.4
2020CLE15141017284011.7356
2021CLE1212875257011247.5
2022NOR93392527210.9130.2
Career13211610847137,87011.03859.6
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2011LSUSEC14443010.83.1
2012LSUSEC1356573510.244.1
2013LSUSEC13771,1931015.591.8
Career401371,8091513.245.2

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

95%

ML model output

Context Prob

80%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

4

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Program WR pipeline: 31% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.234
3.1 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.292
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.99 — elite recruit at elite school+0.234

Top Negative Factors

-10.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.691
Improvement accelerating (+26.7) — getting better faster each year-0.375
Recruit dominator synergy-0.272

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)