Player breakdown
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Ohio St. · 2023 Draft Class
6-1196 lbs1st round, 20th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~24
EliteAll-American x11000+ NFL
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
93%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | SEA | 17 | 3 | 93 | 63 | 628 | 10 | 4 | 36.9 |
| 2024 | SEA | 17 | 16 | 137 | 100 | 1,130 | 11.3 | 6 | 66.5 |
| 2025 | SEA | 17 | 17 | 163 | 119 | 1,793 | 15.1 | 10 | 105.5 |
| Career | 51 | 36 | 393 | 282 | 3,551 | 12.6 | 20 | 69.6 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 7 | 10 | 49 | 1 | 4.9 | 7 |
| 2021 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 13 | 95 | 1,606 | 9 | 16.9 | 123.5 |
| 2022 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 3 | 5 | 43 | 0 | 8.6 | 14.3 |
| Career | 23 | 110 | 1,698 | 10 | 15.4 | 73.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
91%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
5
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.323
Physical production synergy+0.305
7.0 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.294
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+31.8) — getting better faster each year-0.393
0.09 TDs/catch — high-value usage pattern-0.206
No combine speed data — model penalizes missing athleticism-0.191