Player breakdown
Elijah Moore
Mississippi · 2021 Draft Class
5-11181 lbs2nd round, 34th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~26
EliteAll-American x1Did Not Hit
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
84%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | NYJ | 11 | 6 | 77 | 43 | 538 | 12.5 | 5 | 48.9 |
| 2022 | NYJ | 16 | 9 | 65 | 37 | 446 | 12.1 | 1 | 27.9 |
| 2023 | CLE | 17 | 12 | 104 | 59 | 640 | 10.8 | 2 | 37.6 |
| 2024 | CLE | 17 | 13 | 102 | 61 | 538 | 8.8 | 1 | 31.6 |
| 2025 | BUF | 9 | 2 | 17 | 9 | 112 | 12.4 | 0 | 12.4 |
| Career | 70 | 42 | 365 | 209 | 2,274 | 10.9 | 9 | 32.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Ole Miss | SEC | 12 | 36 | 398 | 2 | 11.1 | 33.2 |
| 2019 | Ole Miss | SEC | 12 | 67 | 850 | 6 | 12.7 | 70.8 |
| 2020 | Ole Miss | SEC | 8 | 86 | 1,193 | 8 | 13.9 | 149.1 |
| 2024 | Florida State | ACC | 4 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 8.5 | 4.3 |
| 2025 | Florida State | ACC | 10 | 3 | 52 | 0 | 17.3 | 5.2 |
| Career | 46 | 194 | 2,510 | 16 | 12.9 | 54.6 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
96%
ML model output
Context Prob
61%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 19% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.274
Physical production synergy+0.444
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.92 — elite recruit at elite school+0.234
Top Negative Factors
Recruit dominator synergy-0.234
58.1 yards per adjusted target opportunity — solid efficiency vs. opportunities-0.198
Improvement accelerating (+2.0) — getting better faster each year-0.196