Player breakdown
Jaylen Waddle
Alabama · 2021 Draft Class
5-9175 lbs1st round, 6th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~27
EliteAll-American x11000+ NFL
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
91%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | MIA | 16 | 16 | 140 | 104 | 1,015 | 9.8 | 6 | 63.4 |
| 2022 | MIA | 17 | 17 | 117 | 75 | 1,356 | 18.1 | 8 | 79.8 |
| 2023 | MIA | 14 | 14 | 104 | 72 | 1,014 | 14.1 | 4 | 72.4 |
| 2024 | MIA | 15 | 15 | 83 | 58 | 744 | 12.8 | 2 | 49.6 |
| 2025 | MIA | 16 | 16 | 100 | 64 | 910 | 14.2 | 6 | 56.9 |
| Career | 78 | 78 | 544 | 373 | 5,039 | 13.5 | 26 | 64.6 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Alabama | SEC | 15 | 45 | 848 | 7 | 18.8 | 56.5 |
| 2019 | Alabama | SEC | 13 | 33 | 560 | 6 | 17 | 43.1 |
| 2020 | Alabama | SEC | 6 | 28 | 591 | 4 | 21.1 | 98.5 |
| Career | 34 | 106 | 1,999 | 17 | 18.9 | 58.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
88%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
4
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 33% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.199
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.762
Recruit dominator synergy+0.268
Top Negative Factors
+6.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.726
Accounted for 1.94 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.228
Physical production synergy-0.196