Player breakdown
Joe Adams
Arkansas · 2012 Draft Class
5-11179 lbs4th round, 104th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~36
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
6%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | CAR | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0.8 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Arkansas | SEC | 12 | 31 | 377 | 1 | 12.2 | 31.4 |
| 2009 | Arkansas | SEC | 10 | 29 | 568 | 7 | 19.6 | 56.8 |
| 2010 | Arkansas | SEC | 12 | 50 | 813 | 6 | 16.3 | 67.8 |
| 2011 | Arkansas | SEC | 13 | 54 | 652 | 3 | 12.1 | 50.2 |
| Career | 47 | 164 | 2,410 | 17 | 14.7 | 51.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
0%
ML model output
Context Prob
35%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.252
BMI 25.0 — ideal frame for NFL WR (179 lbs)+0.204
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.93 — elite recruit at elite school+0.196
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.520
-0.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.579
Accounted for 1.75 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.410