Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Jonathan Orr
Jonathan Orr

Player breakdown

Jonathan Orr

Wisconsin · 2006 Draft Class

6-2198 lbs6th round, 172nd overallAge: ~42
MediumDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

45%

SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2002WisconsinBig Ten1447842817.960.1
2003WisconsinBig Ten137117016.79
2004WisconsinBig Ten1213177313.614.8
2005WisconsinBig Ten1340688817.252.9
Career521071,8241917.035.1

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

12%

ML model output

Context Prob

95%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

7

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.066
Flat acceleration — consistent but not accelerating+0.652
BMI 25.4 — ideal frame for NFL WR (198 lbs)+0.215

Top Negative Factors

-19.3 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.768
Physical production synergy-0.413
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.395

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)