Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Michael Jenkins
Michael Jenkins

Player breakdown

Michael Jenkins

Ohio St. · 2004 Draft Class

6-4218 lbs1st round, 29th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~44
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

59%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2004ATL1602071191707.4
2005ATL1412713650814.1336.3
2006ATL1616833943611.2727.3
2007ATL156855353210435.5
2008ATL1612815077715.5348.6
2009ATL159905063512.7142.3
2010ATL119734150512.3245.9
2011MIN117553846612.3342.4
2012MIN168724044911.2228.1
Career130796303544,42712.52534.1
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2001Ohio StateBig Ten1141836320.476
2002Ohio StateBig Ten14611,076617.676.9
2003Ohio StateBig Ten1355834715.264.2
Career381572,7461617.572.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

58%

ML model output

Context Prob

65%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

2

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.069
Physical production synergy+0.390
BMI 26.5 — ideal frame for NFL WR (218 lbs)+0.242

Top Negative Factors

Scout dominator depth synergy-0.386
Efficiency consistency: 1.17 — highly consistent across seasons-0.312
0.42 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college-0.295

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)