Player breakdown
Josh Boyce
TCU · 2013 Draft Class
5-11206 lbs4th round, 102nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~35
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
8%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | NWE | 9 | 3 | 19 | 9 | 121 | 13.4 | 0 | 13.4 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Texas Christian | MWC | 13 | 34 | 646 | 6 | 19 | 49.7 |
| 2011 | Texas Christian | MWC | 13 | 61 | 998 | 9 | 16.4 | 76.8 |
| 2012 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 13 | 66 | 891 | 7 | 13.5 | 68.5 |
| Career | 39 | 161 | 2,535 | 22 | 15.7 | 65.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
2%
ML model output
Context Prob
42%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Physical production synergy+0.293
BMI 28.7 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (206 lbs)+0.216
0.56 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college+0.197
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.495
+9.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.557
Accounted for 0.00 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.395