Player breakdown
Austin Collie
BYU · 2009 Draft Class
6-1200 lbs4th round, 127th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~40
EliteDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
90%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | IND | 16 | 5 | 89 | 60 | 676 | 11.3 | 7 | 42.3 |
| 2010 | IND | 9 | 6 | 71 | 58 | 649 | 11.2 | 8 | 72.1 |
| 2011 | IND | 16 | 5 | 96 | 54 | 514 | 9.5 | 1 | 32.1 |
| 2012 | IND | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 2013 | NWE | 7 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 63 | 10.5 | 0 | 9 |
| Career | 49 | 17 | 268 | 179 | 1,908 | 10.7 | 16 | 38.9 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | BYU | MWC | 11 | 53 | 771 | 8 | 14.5 | 70.1 |
| 2007 | BYU | MWC | 13 | 56 | 946 | 7 | 16.9 | 72.8 |
| 2008 | BYU | MWC | 13 | 106 | 1,538 | 15 | 14.5 | 118.3 |
| Career | 37 | 215 | 3,255 | 30 | 15.1 | 88.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
92%
ML model output
Context Prob
77%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 15% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.286
Physical production synergy+0.510
38.0% TD share at small school — strong red-zone role+0.315
Top Negative Factors
Accounted for 0.00 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.442
Improvement accelerating (+1.0) — getting better faster each year-0.172
Recruit dominator synergy-0.168