Player breakdown
Josh Doctson
TCU · 2016 Draft Class
6-2202 lbs1st round, 22nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~33
EliteAll-American x1Did Not Hit
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
78%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | WAS | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 66 | 33 | 0 | 33 |
| 2017 | WAS | 16 | 14 | 78 | 35 | 502 | 14.3 | 6 | 31.4 |
| 2018 | WAS | 15 | 12 | 78 | 44 | 532 | 12.1 | 2 | 35.5 |
| Career | 33 | 26 | 162 | 81 | 1,100 | 13.6 | 8 | 33.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Wyoming | MWC | 12 | 35 | 393 | 5 | 11.2 | 32.8 |
| 2013 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 10 | 36 | 440 | 4 | 12.2 | 44 |
| 2014 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 13 | 65 | 1,018 | 11 | 15.7 | 78.3 |
| 2015 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 11 | 79 | 1,327 | 14 | 16.8 | 120.6 |
| Career | 46 | 215 | 3,178 | 34 | 14.8 | 69.1 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
4%
ML model output
Context Prob
82%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.347
BMI 25.9 — ideal frame for NFL WR (202 lbs)+0.221
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.219
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.777
Physical production synergy-0.441
Accounted for 0.00 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.405