Player breakdown
Mike Evans
Texas A&M · 2014 Draft Class
6-5231 lbs1st round, 7th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~33
EliteAll-American x11000+ NFL
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
95%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | TAM | 15 | 15 | 122 | 68 | 1,051 | 15.5 | 12 | 70.1 |
| 2015 | TAM | 15 | 14 | 148 | 74 | 1,206 | 16.3 | 3 | 80.4 |
| 2016 | TAM | 16 | 16 | 173 | 96 | 1,321 | 13.8 | 12 | 82.6 |
| 2017 | TAM | 15 | 15 | 136 | 71 | 1,001 | 14.1 | 5 | 66.7 |
| 2018 | TAM | 16 | 16 | 138 | 86 | 1,524 | 17.7 | 8 | 95.3 |
| 2019 | TAM | 13 | 13 | 118 | 67 | 1,157 | 17.3 | 8 | 89 |
| 2020 | TAM | 16 | 16 | 109 | 70 | 1,006 | 14.4 | 13 | 62.9 |
| 2021 | TAM | 16 | 16 | 114 | 74 | 1,035 | 14 | 14 | 64.7 |
| 2022 | TAM | 15 | 15 | 127 | 77 | 1,124 | 14.6 | 6 | 74.9 |
| 2023 | TAM | 17 | 17 | 136 | 79 | 1,255 | 15.9 | 13 | 73.8 |
| 2024 | TAM | 14 | 14 | 110 | 74 | 1,004 | 13.6 | 11 | 71.7 |
| 2025 | TAM | 8 | 8 | 62 | 30 | 368 | 12.3 | 3 | 46 |
| Career | 176 | 175 | 1493 | 866 | 13,052 | 15.1 | 108 | 74.2 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Army | Ind | 10 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 22 | 2.2 |
| 2007 | Army | Ind | 12 | 11 | 126 | 0 | 11.5 | 10.5 |
| 2008 | Army | Ind | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.2 |
| 2012 | Texas A&M | SEC | 13 | 82 | 1,105 | 5 | 13.5 | 85 |
| 2013 | Texas A&M | SEC | 13 | 69 | 1,394 | 12 | 20.2 | 107.2 |
| 2020 | Appalachian State | Sun Belt | 6 | 5 | 75 | 1 | 15 | 12.5 |
| 2021 | Appalachian State | Sun Belt | 13 | 7 | 77 | 0 | 11 | 5.9 |
| Career | 79 | 176 | 2,801 | 19 | 15.9 | 35.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
99%
ML model output
Context Prob
94%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
4
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 14% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.300
Physical production synergy+0.398
BMI 27.4 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (231 lbs)+0.258
Top Negative Factors
Improvement accelerating (+696.0) — getting better faster each year-0.324
Height-adjusted speed: 4.24s — elite speed for frame-0.144
Team averaged 37.6 pass attempts/game — balanced offensive system-0.144