Player breakdown
Josh Downs
North Carolina · 2023 Draft Class
5-9171 lbs3rd round, 79th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~25
EliteAll-American x1Did Not Hit
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
78%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | IND | 17 | 9 | 98 | 68 | 771 | 11.3 | 2 | 45.4 |
| 2024 | IND | 14 | 8 | 107 | 72 | 803 | 11.2 | 5 | 57.4 |
| 2025 | IND | 16 | 11 | 88 | 58 | 566 | 9.8 | 4 | 35.4 |
| Career | 47 | 28 | 293 | 198 | 2,140 | 10.8 | 11 | 45.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | North Carolina | ACC | 10 | 7 | 119 | 3 | 17 | 11.9 |
| 2021 | North Carolina | ACC | 13 | 101 | 1,335 | 8 | 13.2 | 102.7 |
| 2022 | North Carolina | ACC | 11 | 94 | 1,029 | 11 | 10.9 | 93.5 |
| Career | 34 | 202 | 2,483 | 22 | 12.3 | 73.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
32%
ML model output
Context Prob
61%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 7% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+0.198
Accounted for 3.52 yards per team pass attempt — alpha receiver share+0.197
0.65 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college+0.189
Top Negative Factors
Physical production synergy-0.595
Improvement accelerating (+10.2) — getting better faster each year-0.474
Efficiency consistency: 1.38 — highly consistent across seasons-0.288