Player breakdown
Zay Jones
East Carolina · 2017 Draft Class
6-2201 lbs2nd round, 37th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~31
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
39%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | BUF | 15 | 10 | 74 | 27 | 316 | 11.7 | 2 | 21.1 |
| 2018 | BUF | 16 | 15 | 102 | 56 | 652 | 11.6 | 7 | 40.8 |
| 2019 | 2TM | 15 | 9 | 45 | 27 | 216 | 8 | 0 | 14.4 |
| 2019 | BUF | 5 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 69 | 9.9 | 0 | 13.8 |
| 2019 | OAK | 10 | 7 | 27 | 20 | 147 | 7.4 | 0 | 14.7 |
| 2020 | LVR | 16 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 154 | 11 | 1 | 9.6 |
| 2021 | LVR | 17 | 9 | 70 | 47 | 546 | 11.6 | 1 | 32.1 |
| 2022 | JAX | 16 | 15 | 121 | 82 | 823 | 10 | 5 | 51.4 |
| 2023 | JAX | 9 | 7 | 64 | 34 | 321 | 9.4 | 2 | 35.7 |
| 2024 | ARI | 11 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 84 | 10.5 | 0 | 7.6 |
| 2025 | ARI | 8 | 0 | 18 | 12 | 183 | 15.3 | 0 | 22.9 |
| Career | 138 | 78 | 570 | 334 | 3,511 | 10.5 | 18 | 25.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | East Carolina | CUSA | 12 | 62 | 604 | 5 | 9.7 | 50.3 |
| 2014 | East Carolina | American | 13 | 81 | 830 | 5 | 10.2 | 63.8 |
| 2015 | East Carolina | American | 12 | 98 | 1,099 | 5 | 11.2 | 91.6 |
| 2016 | East Carolina | American | 12 | 158 | 1,746 | 8 | 11.1 | 145.5 |
| Career | 49 | 399 | 4,279 | 23 | 10.7 | 87.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
39%
ML model output
Context Prob
40%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
+31.4 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.271
Speed × production: 179.0 — elite combined athletic output+0.246
Physical production synergy+0.245
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-1.333
Improvement accelerating (+1.9) — getting better faster each year-0.206
51.0 yards per adjusted target opportunity — solid efficiency vs. opportunities-0.193