Player breakdown
Josh Palmer
Tennessee · 2021 Draft Class
6-2200 lbs3rd round, 77th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~26
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
9%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | LAC | 17 | 5 | 49 | 33 | 353 | 10.7 | 4 | 20.8 |
| 2022 | LAC | 16 | 11 | 107 | 72 | 769 | 10.7 | 3 | 48.1 |
| 2023 | LAC | 10 | 6 | 61 | 38 | 581 | 15.3 | 2 | 58.1 |
| 2024 | LAC | 15 | 7 | 65 | 39 | 584 | 15 | 1 | 38.9 |
| 2025 | BUF | 12 | 8 | 37 | 22 | 303 | 13.8 | 0 | 25.3 |
| Career | 70 | 37 | 319 | 204 | 2,590 | 12.7 | 10 | 37.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Tennessee | SEC | 12 | 9 | 98 | 0 | 10.9 | 8.2 |
| 2018 | Tennessee | SEC | 12 | 23 | 484 | 2 | 21 | 40.3 |
| 2019 | Tennessee | SEC | 13 | 34 | 457 | 1 | 13.4 | 35.2 |
| 2020 | Tennessee | SEC | 10 | 33 | 475 | 4 | 14.4 | 47.5 |
| Career | 47 | 99 | 1,514 | 7 | 15.3 | 32.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
55%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.337
8.2 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.246
Team averaged 24.8 pass attempts/game — run-heavy offensive system+0.198
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.288
-22.2 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.577
Physical production synergy-0.472