Player breakdown
Josh Reed
LSU · 2002 Draft Class
5-10210 lbs2nd round, 36th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~46
EliteDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
87%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | BUF | 16 | 2 | 59 | 37 | 509 | 13.8 | 2 | 31.8 |
| 2003 | BUF | 16 | 16 | 104 | 58 | 588 | 10.1 | 2 | 36.8 |
| 2004 | BUF | 12 | 1 | 36 | 16 | 153 | 9.6 | 0 | 12.8 |
| 2005 | BUF | 16 | 6 | 52 | 32 | 449 | 14 | 2 | 28.1 |
| 2006 | BUF | 13 | 1 | 48 | 34 | 410 | 12.1 | 2 | 31.5 |
| 2007 | BUF | 15 | 9 | 88 | 51 | 578 | 11.3 | 0 | 38.5 |
| 2008 | BUF | 13 | 13 | 80 | 56 | 597 | 10.7 | 1 | 45.9 |
| 2009 | BUF | 14 | 4 | 45 | 27 | 291 | 10.8 | 1 | 20.8 |
| Career | 115 | 52 | 512 | 311 | 3,575 | 11.5 | 10 | 31.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | LSU | SEC | 11 | 65 | 1,127 | 10 | 17.3 | 102.5 |
| 2001 | LSU | SEC | 12 | 94 | 1,740 | 7 | 18.5 | 145 |
| 2002 | Tulsa | WAC | 11 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0.6 |
| Career | 34 | 160 | 2,874 | 17 | 18.0 | 84.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
74%
ML model output
Context Prob
95%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
5
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 31% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.040
+68.7 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.278
BMI 30.1 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (210 lbs)+0.232
Top Negative Factors
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.392
Physical production synergy-0.369
Recruit dominator synergy-0.266