Player breakdown
Justin Brown
Oklahoma · 2013 Draft Class
6-3209 lbs6th round, 186th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~35
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
29%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | PIT | 8 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 94 | 7.8 | 0 | 11.8 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | Penn State | Big Ten | 10 | 5 | 78 | 0 | 15.6 | 7.8 |
| 2010 | Penn State | Big Ten | 13 | 33 | 452 | 1 | 13.7 | 34.8 |
| 2011 | Penn State | Big Ten | 13 | 35 | 517 | 2 | 14.8 | 39.8 |
| 2012 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 13 | 73 | 879 | 5 | 12 | 67.6 |
| Career | 49 | 146 | 1,926 | 8 | 13.2 | 39.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
8%
ML model output
Context Prob
60%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
4
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 11% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.158
BMI 26.1 — ideal frame for NFL WR (209 lbs)+0.176
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 1.04x — route-running independent of system+0.171
Top Negative Factors
Physical production synergy-0.553
Improvement accelerating (+10.3) — getting better faster each year-0.549
Accounted for 1.54 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.370