Player breakdown
Justin Gage
Missouri · 2003 Draft Class
6-4217 lbs5th round, 143rd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~45
HighDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
69%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | CHI | 10 | 3 | 35 | 17 | 338 | 19.9 | 2 | 33.8 |
| 2004 | CHI | 16 | 2 | 28 | 12 | 156 | 13 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 2005 | CHI | 15 | 11 | 55 | 31 | 346 | 11.2 | 2 | 23.1 |
| 2006 | CHI | 8 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 68 | 17 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 2007 | TEN | 16 | 8 | 85 | 55 | 750 | 13.6 | 2 | 46.9 |
| 2008 | TEN | 12 | 11 | 74 | 34 | 651 | 19.1 | 6 | 54.3 |
| 2009 | TEN | 12 | 10 | 67 | 28 | 383 | 13.7 | 3 | 31.9 |
| 2010 | TEN | 11 | 4 | 43 | 20 | 266 | 13.3 | 1 | 24.2 |
| Career | 100 | 49 | 395 | 201 | 2,958 | 14.7 | 16 | 29.6 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Missouri | Big 12 | 11 | 44 | 709 | 4 | 16.1 | 64.5 |
| 2001 | Missouri | Big 12 | 11 | 74 | 920 | 5 | 12.4 | 83.6 |
| 2002 | Missouri | Big 12 | 12 | 82 | 1,075 | 9 | 13.1 | 89.6 |
| Career | 34 | 200 | 2,704 | 18 | 13.5 | 79.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
72%
ML model output
Context Prob
50%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 13% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.177
Physical production synergy+0.421
BMI 26.4 — ideal frame for NFL WR (217 lbs)+0.222
Top Negative Factors
Efficiency consistency: 1.19 — highly consistent across seasons-0.286
Recruit dominator synergy-0.228
0.09 TDs/catch — high-value usage pattern-0.204