Player breakdown
Justin Shorter
Florida · 2023 Draft Class
6-4229 lbs5th round, 150th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~26
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
32%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Penn State | Big Ten | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 6.7 | 5 |
| 2019 | Penn State | Big Ten | 10 | 12 | 137 | 0 | 11.4 | 13.7 |
| 2020 | Florida | SEC | 12 | 25 | 268 | 3 | 10.7 | 22.3 |
| 2021 | Florida | SEC | 13 | 41 | 550 | 3 | 13.4 | 42.3 |
| 2022 | Florida | SEC | 9 | 29 | 577 | 2 | 19.9 | 64.1 |
| Career | 48 | 110 | 1,552 | 8 | 14.1 | 32.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
0%
ML model output
Context Prob
80%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
5
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit rating × conference strength: 1.00 — elite recruit at elite school+0.199
BMI 27.9 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (229 lbs)+0.173
Recruit dominator synergy+0.173
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 1% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.414
-15.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.585
0.24 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.405