Player breakdown
Matt Lauter
Boise State · 2026 Draft Class
6-3240 lbsUndrafted / UpcomingAge: ~22
Low
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
5%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Boise State | MWC | 14 | 4 | 40 | 0 | 10 | 2.9 |
| 2023 | Boise State | MWC | 13 | 9 | 157 | 3 | 17.4 | 12.1 |
| 2024 | Boise State | MWC | 14 | 47 | 619 | 7 | 13.2 | 44.2 |
| 2025 | Boise State | MWC | 13 | 37 | 330 | 2 | 8.9 | 25.4 |
| Career | 54 | 97 | 1,146 | 12 | 11.8 | 21.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
30%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
2.9 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.262
Recruit dominator synergy+0.225
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 0.71x — route-running independent of system+0.175
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 1% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.585
Improvement accelerating (+14.5) — getting better faster each year-0.575
-2.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.514