Player breakdown
Nick Toon
Wisconsin · 2012 Draft Class
6-2215 lbs4th round, 122nd overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~37
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
23%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | NOR | 8 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 68 | 17 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 2014 | NOR | 8 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 215 | 12.6 | 1 | 26.9 |
| Career | 16 | 5 | 35 | 21 | 283 | 13.5 | 1 | 17.7 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 12 | 17 | 257 | 1 | 15.1 | 21.4 |
| 2009 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 13 | 54 | 805 | 4 | 14.9 | 61.9 |
| 2010 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 9 | 36 | 459 | 3 | 12.8 | 51 |
| 2011 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 13 | 64 | 926 | 10 | 14.5 | 71.2 |
| Career | 47 | 171 | 2,447 | 18 | 14.3 | 52.1 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
17%
ML model output
Context Prob
57%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.207
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.90 — elite recruit at elite school+0.211
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 1.03x — route-running independent of system+0.181
Top Negative Factors
-3.9 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.730
Physical production synergy-0.457
Improvement accelerating (+2.6) — getting better faster each year-0.338