Player breakdown
Noah Brown
Ohio St. · 2017 Draft Class
6-2222 lbs7th round, 239th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~30
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
23%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | DAL | 13 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 2018 | DAL | 8 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 54 | 10.8 | 0 | 6.8 |
| 2020 | DAL | 16 | 1 | 24 | 14 | 154 | 11 | 0 | 9.6 |
| 2021 | DAL | 13 | 1 | 25 | 16 | 184 | 11.5 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 2022 | DAL | 16 | 13 | 74 | 43 | 555 | 12.9 | 3 | 34.7 |
| 2023 | HOU | 10 | 7 | 55 | 33 | 567 | 17.2 | 2 | 56.7 |
| 2024 | WAS | 11 | 9 | 56 | 35 | 453 | 12.9 | 1 | 41.2 |
| 2025 | WAS | 4 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 83 | 16.6 | 0 | 20.8 |
| Career | 91 | 38 | 261 | 155 | 2,083 | 13.4 | 6 | 22.9 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 11 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 0.8 |
| 2016 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 13 | 32 | 402 | 7 | 12.6 | 30.9 |
| Career | 24 | 33 | 411 | 7 | 12.5 | 17.1 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
20%
ML model output
Context Prob
43%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 21% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.220
0.8 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.276
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.92 — elite recruit at elite school+0.211
Top Negative Factors
-39.8 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.732
Physical production synergy-0.543
Improvement accelerating (+43.7) — getting better faster each year-0.495