Player breakdown
Marvin Jones
California · 2012 Draft Class
6-2199 lbs5th round, 166th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~36
High1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
61%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | CIN | 11 | 5 | 32 | 18 | 201 | 11.2 | 1 | 18.3 |
| 2013 | CIN | 16 | 3 | 80 | 51 | 712 | 14 | 10 | 44.5 |
| 2015 | CIN | 16 | 13 | 103 | 65 | 816 | 12.6 | 4 | 51 |
| 2016 | DET | 15 | 15 | 103 | 55 | 930 | 16.9 | 4 | 62 |
| 2017 | DET | 16 | 16 | 107 | 61 | 1,101 | 18 | 9 | 68.8 |
| 2018 | DET | 9 | 9 | 62 | 35 | 508 | 14.5 | 5 | 56.4 |
| 2019 | DET | 13 | 11 | 91 | 62 | 779 | 12.6 | 9 | 59.9 |
| 2020 | DET | 16 | 16 | 115 | 76 | 978 | 12.9 | 9 | 61.1 |
| 2021 | JAX | 17 | 16 | 120 | 73 | 832 | 11.4 | 4 | 48.9 |
| 2022 | JAX | 16 | 10 | 81 | 46 | 529 | 11.5 | 3 | 33.1 |
| 2023 | DET | 6 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 5.8 |
| Career | 151 | 118 | 904 | 547 | 7,421 | 13.6 | 58 | 49.1 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | California | Pac-10 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 1.6 |
| 2009 | California | Pac-10 | 13 | 43 | 651 | 6 | 15.1 | 50.1 |
| 2010 | California | Pac-10 | 12 | 50 | 765 | 4 | 15.3 | 63.8 |
| 2011 | California | Pac-12 | 13 | 62 | 846 | 3 | 13.6 | 65.1 |
| Career | 43 | 156 | 2,270 | 13 | 14.6 | 52.8 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
62%
ML model output
Context Prob
53%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 26% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.326
1.6 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.310
Physical production synergy+0.272
Top Negative Factors
-1.6 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.748
0.30 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.383
Improvement accelerating (+104.8) — getting better faster each year-0.324