Player breakdown
Quentin Johnston
TCU · 2023 Draft Class
6-3208 lbs1st round, 21st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~25
EliteAll-American x1Did Not Hit
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
78%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | LAC | 17 | 10 | 67 | 38 | 431 | 11.3 | 2 | 25.4 |
| 2024 | LAC | 15 | 11 | 91 | 55 | 711 | 12.9 | 8 | 47.4 |
| 2025 | LAC | 14 | 10 | 84 | 51 | 735 | 14.4 | 8 | 52.5 |
| Career | 46 | 31 | 242 | 144 | 1,877 | 13.0 | 18 | 40.8 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 9 | 22 | 487 | 2 | 22.1 | 54.1 |
| 2021 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 9 | 33 | 634 | 6 | 19.2 | 70.4 |
| 2022 | Texas Christian | Big 12 | 14 | 60 | 1,069 | 6 | 17.8 | 76.4 |
| Career | 32 | 115 | 2,190 | 14 | 19.0 | 68.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
5%
ML model output
Context Prob
77%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
BMI 26.0 — ideal frame for NFL WR (208 lbs)+0.243
Scout dominator depth synergy+0.230
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.87 — elite recruit at elite school+0.175
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.508
Accounted for 0.00 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.354
Improvement accelerating (+1.2) — getting better faster each year-0.285