Player breakdown
Rashod Bateman
Minnesota · 2021 Draft Class
6-0190 lbs1st round, 27th overallAge at Draft: 21Age: ~26
EliteAll-American x1Did Not Hit
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
92%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | BAL | 12 | 4 | 68 | 46 | 515 | 11.2 | 1 | 42.9 |
| 2022 | BAL | 6 | 5 | 28 | 15 | 285 | 19 | 2 | 47.5 |
| 2023 | BAL | 16 | 12 | 56 | 32 | 367 | 11.5 | 1 | 22.9 |
| 2024 | BAL | 17 | 14 | 72 | 45 | 756 | 16.8 | 9 | 44.5 |
| 2025 | BAL | 13 | 12 | 38 | 19 | 224 | 11.8 | 2 | 17.2 |
| Career | 64 | 47 | 262 | 157 | 2,147 | 13.7 | 15 | 33.5 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 13 | 51 | 704 | 6 | 13.8 | 54.2 |
| 2019 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 13 | 60 | 1,219 | 11 | 20.3 | 93.8 |
| 2020 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 5 | 36 | 472 | 2 | 13.1 | 94.4 |
| Career | 31 | 147 | 2,395 | 19 | 16.3 | 77.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
98%
ML model output
Context Prob
82%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 13% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.245
Physical production synergy+0.491
33.0% TD share at small school — strong red-zone role+0.322
Top Negative Factors
Recruit dominator synergy-0.184
Best season came before final year — may have plateaued-0.147
Season-to-season ypg consistency: 0.00 — variable output-0.147