Player breakdown
Rishard Matthews
Nevada · 2012 Draft Class
6-0217 lbs7th round, 227th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~36
EliteDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
75%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | MIA | 8 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 151 | 13.7 | 0 | 18.9 |
| 2014 | MIA | 14 | 0 | 22 | 12 | 135 | 11.3 | 2 | 9.6 |
| 2015 | MIA | 11 | 11 | 61 | 43 | 662 | 15.4 | 4 | 60.2 |
| 2016 | TEN | 16 | 9 | 108 | 65 | 945 | 14.5 | 9 | 59.1 |
| 2017 | TEN | 14 | 11 | 87 | 53 | 795 | 15 | 4 | 56.8 |
| 2018 | 2TM | 8 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 | 3 |
| 2018 | TEN | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 2018 | NYJ | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 2.6 |
| Career | 79 | 32 | 316 | 194 | 2,736 | 14.1 | 19 | 34.6 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Nevada | WAC | 14 | 56 | 879 | 5 | 15.7 | 62.8 |
| 2011 | Nevada | WAC | 12 | 91 | 1,364 | 8 | 15 | 113.7 |
| Career | 26 | 147 | 2,243 | 13 | 15.3 | 86.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
74%
ML model output
Context Prob
82%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 17% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.224
+29.3 ypg vs. draft class average — above average+0.284
Accounted for 3.33 yards per team pass attempt — alpha receiver share+0.221
Top Negative Factors
Recruit dominator synergy-0.215
0.09 TDs/catch — high-value usage pattern-0.205
51.2 yards per adjusted target opportunity — solid efficiency vs. opportunities-0.156