Player breakdown
Jordy Nelson
Kansas St. · 2008 Draft Class
6-3217 lbs2nd round, 36th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~41
EliteAll-American x11000+ NFL
Major awards: 1Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
85%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | GNB | 16 | 2 | 54 | 33 | 366 | 11.1 | 2 | 22.9 |
| 2009 | GNB | 13 | 0 | 31 | 22 | 320 | 14.5 | 2 | 24.6 |
| 2010 | GNB | 16 | 4 | 64 | 45 | 582 | 12.9 | 2 | 36.4 |
| 2011 | GNB | 16 | 9 | 96 | 68 | 1,263 | 18.6 | 15 | 78.9 |
| 2012 | GNB | 12 | 10 | 73 | 49 | 745 | 15.2 | 7 | 62.1 |
| 2013 | GNB | 16 | 16 | 127 | 85 | 1,314 | 15.5 | 8 | 82.1 |
| 2014 | GNB | 16 | 16 | 151 | 98 | 1,519 | 15.5 | 13 | 94.9 |
| 2016 | GNB | 16 | 16 | 152 | 97 | 1,257 | 13 | 14 | 78.6 |
| 2017 | GNB | 15 | 15 | 88 | 53 | 482 | 9.1 | 6 | 32.1 |
| 2018 | OAK | 15 | 14 | 88 | 63 | 739 | 11.7 | 3 | 49.3 |
| Career | 151 | 102 | 924 | 613 | 8,587 | 14.0 | 72 | 56.9 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 11 | 45 | 669 | 8 | 14.9 | 60.8 |
| 2006 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 13 | 39 | 547 | 1 | 14 | 42.1 |
| 2007 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 12 | 122 | 1,606 | 11 | 13.2 | 133.8 |
| Career | 36 | 206 | 2,822 | 20 | 13.7 | 78.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
91%
ML model output
Context Prob
55%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 20% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.208
39.0% TD share at small school — strong red-zone role+0.337
Recruit dominator synergy+0.294
Top Negative Factors
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.248
0.10 TDs/catch — high-value usage pattern-0.222
Improvement accelerating (+1.4) — getting better faster each year-0.180