Player breakdown
Roy Williams
Texas · 2004 Draft Class
6-2212 lbs1st round, 7th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~44
Elite1000+ NFL
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
87%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | DET | 14 | 12 | 118 | 54 | 817 | 15.1 | 8 | 58.4 |
| 2005 | DET | 13 | 12 | 94 | 45 | 687 | 15.3 | 8 | 52.8 |
| 2006 | DET | 16 | 16 | 151 | 82 | 1,310 | 16 | 7 | 81.9 |
| 2007 | DET | 12 | 12 | 105 | 64 | 838 | 13.1 | 5 | 69.8 |
| 2008 | 2TM | 15 | 11 | 39 | 36 | 430 | 11.9 | 2 | 28.7 |
| 2008 | DET | 5 | 4 | 39 | 17 | 232 | 13.6 | 1 | 46.4 |
| 2008 | DAL | 10 | 7 | 0 | 19 | 198 | 10.4 | 1 | 19.8 |
| 2009 | DAL | 15 | 13 | 86 | 38 | 596 | 15.7 | 7 | 39.7 |
| 2010 | DAL | 15 | 9 | 64 | 37 | 530 | 14.3 | 5 | 35.3 |
| 2011 | CHI | 15 | 9 | 63 | 37 | 507 | 13.7 | 2 | 33.8 |
| Career | 130 | 105 | 759 | 429 | 6,145 | 14.3 | 46 | 47.3 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Texas | Big 12 | 11 | 40 | 809 | 8 | 20.2 | 73.5 |
| 2001 | Texas | Big 12 | 12 | 67 | 836 | 7 | 12.5 | 69.7 |
| 2002 | Texas | Big 12 | 12 | 64 | 1,142 | 12 | 17.8 | 95.2 |
| 2003 | Texas | Big 12 | 13 | 70 | 1,079 | 9 | 15.4 | 83 |
| 2003 | UCF | MAC | 12 | 3 | 56 | 0 | 18.7 | 4.7 |
| Career | 60 | 244 | 3,922 | 36 | 16.1 | 65.4 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
92%
ML model output
Context Prob
57%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 7% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+0.453
Physical production synergy+0.446
BMI 27.2 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (212 lbs)+0.250
Top Negative Factors
Efficiency consistency: 1.26 — highly consistent across seasons-0.298
Recruit dominator synergy-0.240
20.2 YPR in first season — elite freshman efficiency-0.162