Player breakdown
Sam Aiken
North Carolina · 2003 Draft Class
6-2209 lbs4th round, 127th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~45
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
16%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | BUF | 5 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 | 7 |
| 2004 | BUF | 16 | 0 | 18 | 11 | 148 | 13.5 | 0 | 9.3 |
| 2005 | BUF | 16 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 57 | 14.3 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 2007 | BUF | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0.8 |
| 2008 | NWE | 14 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 101 | 12.6 | 0 | 7.2 |
| 2009 | NWE | 14 | 7 | 41 | 20 | 326 | 16.3 | 2 | 23.3 |
| 2010 | CLE | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 2.3 |
| Career | 80 | 11 | 94 | 48 | 684 | 14.3 | 2 | 8.6 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | North Carolina | ACC | 11 | 29 | 400 | 3 | 13.8 | 36.4 |
| 2001 | North Carolina | ACC | 12 | 46 | 789 | 8 | 17.2 | 65.8 |
| 2002 | North Carolina | ACC | 12 | 68 | 990 | 4 | 14.6 | 82.5 |
| Career | 35 | 143 | 2,179 | 15 | 15.2 | 62.3 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
10%
ML model output
Context Prob
52%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
BMI 26.8 — ideal frame for NFL WR (209 lbs)+0.225
Physical production synergy+0.175
Speed score 94.2 — below average weight-adjusted athleticism+0.159
Top Negative Factors
+6.3 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.734
0.43 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college-0.305
Improvement accelerating (+1.5) — getting better faster each year-0.253