Player breakdown
Sam Simmons
Northwestern · 2002 Draft Class
5th round, 170th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~46
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
7%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | MIA | 11 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 10 | 35 | 474 | 5 | 13.5 | 47.4 |
| 2001 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 11 | 50 | 807 | 7 | 16.1 | 73.4 |
| Career | 21 | 85 | 1,281 | 12 | 15.1 | 61.0 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
1%
ML model output
Context Prob
42%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
0.57 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college+0.208
61.0 career ypg — solid college production+0.124
Top Negative Factors
+0.0 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.723
Program WR pipeline: 5% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-0.677
Physical production synergy-0.443