Player breakdown
Sammie Coates
Auburn · 2015 Draft Class
6-1212 lbs3rd round, 87th overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~33
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
21%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | PIT | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 1.8 |
| 2016 | PIT | 14 | 5 | 49 | 21 | 435 | 20.7 | 2 | 31.1 |
| 2017 | CLE | 12 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 70 | 11.7 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 2018 | HOU | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 1 |
| Career | 44 | 6 | 64 | 29 | 528 | 18.2 | 2 | 12.0 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Auburn | SEC | 12 | 6 | 114 | 2 | 19 | 9.5 |
| 2013 | Auburn | SEC | 13 | 42 | 902 | 7 | 21.5 | 69.4 |
| 2014 | Auburn | SEC | 12 | 34 | 741 | 4 | 21.8 | 61.8 |
| Career | 37 | 82 | 1,757 | 13 | 21.4 | 47.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
2%
ML model output
Context Prob
56%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
BMI 28.0 — outside ideal range for NFL WR (212 lbs)+0.248
Accounted for 3.16 yards per team pass attempt — alpha receiver share+0.227
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.88 — elite recruit at elite school+0.210
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 2% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.442
-8.5 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.574
Scout dominator depth synergy-0.411