Predicting the Pros
Predictions/Stacy Coley
Stacy Coley

Player breakdown

Stacy Coley

Miami (FL) · 2017 Draft Class

6-1195 lbs7th round, 219th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~32
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch Highlights

Model confidence

Success Probability

19%

YearTeamGGSTgtRecYdsY/RTDY/G
2018MIN20100000
SeasonTeamConfGRecYdsTDYPRYPG
2013Miami (FL)ACC1233591717.949.3
2014Miami (FL)ACC12231840815.3
2015Miami (FL)ACC1148693414.463
2016Miami (FL)ACC136375491258
Career481672,2222013.346.3

Model readout

Probability, context, and base score

XGBoost Prob

18%

ML model output

Context Prob

40%

Rule-based model

Suppression Signals

0

Depth chart context

SHAP Base

0.955

Average prediction

Top Positive Factors

Program WR pipeline: 17% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.180
Outperformed team passing efficiency by 0.88x — route-running independent of system+0.190
BMI 25.7 — ideal frame for NFL WR (195 lbs)+0.189

Top Negative Factors

-8.1 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.738
Accounted for 1.77 yards per team pass attempt — featured receiver share-0.417
0.42 TDs/game — reliable scoring role in college-0.287

SHAP Feature Impact (Top 20)