Player breakdown
Trey Palmer
Nebraska · 2023 Draft Class
6-0192 lbs6th round, 191st overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~25
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
27%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | TAM | 17 | 8 | 68 | 39 | 385 | 9.9 | 3 | 22.6 |
| 2024 | TAM | 15 | 3 | 22 | 12 | 172 | 14.3 | 1 | 11.5 |
| Career | 32 | 11 | 90 | 51 | 557 | 10.9 | 4 | 17.4 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | LSU | SEC | 9 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0.7 |
| 2020 | LSU | SEC | 8 | 10 | 108 | 0 | 10.8 | 13.5 |
| 2021 | LSU | SEC | 11 | 30 | 344 | 3 | 11.5 | 31.3 |
| 2022 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 12 | 71 | 1,043 | 9 | 14.7 | 86.9 |
| Career | 40 | 112 | 1,501 | 12 | 13.4 | 37.5 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
4%
ML model output
Context Prob
70%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
3
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
+32.5 ypg vs. draft class average — class-leading production+0.196
Recruit rating × conference strength: 0.95 — elite recruit at elite school+0.191
BMI 26.0 — ideal frame for NFL WR (192 lbs)+0.182
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.696
Physical production synergy-0.462
Improvement accelerating (+172.8) — getting better faster each year-0.404