Player breakdown
Vincent Brown
San Diego St. · 2011 Draft Class
5-11187 lbs3rd round, 82nd overallAge at Draft: 22Age: ~37
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
10%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | SDG | 14 | 4 | 40 | 19 | 329 | 17.3 | 2 | 23.5 |
| 2013 | SDG | 16 | 12 | 70 | 41 | 472 | 11.5 | 1 | 29.5 |
| 2014 | OAK | 7 | 0 | 21 | 12 | 118 | 9.8 | 0 | 16.9 |
| 2015 | SDG | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 22 |
| Career | 38 | 16 | 133 | 73 | 941 | 12.9 | 3 | 24.8 | |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | San Diego State | MWC | 12 | 31 | 349 | 2 | 11.3 | 29.1 |
| 2008 | San Diego State | MWC | 12 | 64 | 631 | 5 | 9.9 | 52.6 |
| 2009 | San Diego State | MWC | 7 | 45 | 778 | 6 | 17.3 | 111.1 |
| 2010 | San Diego State | MWC | 13 | 69 | 1,352 | 10 | 19.6 | 104 |
| Career | 44 | 209 | 3,110 | 23 | 14.9 | 70.7 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
5%
ML model output
Context Prob
40%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
1
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Recruit dominator synergy+0.338
Accounted for 3.17 yards per team pass attempt — alpha receiver share+0.227
BMI 26.1 — ideal frame for NFL WR (187 lbs)+0.213
Top Negative Factors
Program WR pipeline: 3% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate-2.753
Physical production synergy-0.518
Improvement accelerating (+2.9) — getting better faster each year-0.387