Player breakdown
Willie Reid
Florida St. · 2006 Draft Class
5-10188 lbs3rd round, 95th overallAge at Draft: 23Age: ~43
LowDid Not Hit
Major awards: 0Heisman votes: 0NIL Contract Value: --
Watch HighlightsModel confidence
Success Probability
23%
Closest matches
NFL comparables
| Year | Team | G | GS | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Y/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | PIT | 6 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 54 | 13.5 | 0 | 9 |
| Season | Team | Conf | G | Rec | Yds | TD | YPR | YPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | Florida State | ACC | 10 | 6 | 37 | 0 | 6.2 | 3.7 |
| 2003 | Florida State | ACC | 13 | 20 | 189 | 1 | 9.5 | 14.5 |
| 2004 | Florida State | ACC | 11 | 15 | 186 | 1 | 12.4 | 16.9 |
| 2005 | Florida State | ACC | 11 | 50 | 634 | 1 | 12.7 | 57.6 |
| Career | 45 | 91 | 1,046 | 3 | 11.5 | 23.2 | ||
Model readout
Probability, context, and base score
XGBoost Prob
18%
ML model output
Context Prob
53%
Rule-based model
Suppression Signals
2
Depth chart context
SHAP Base
0.955
Average prediction
Top Positive Factors
Program WR pipeline: 19% NFL 1000-yard conversion rate+1.229
Recruit dominator synergy+0.523
3.7 ypg as a freshman — limited first-year impact+0.282
Top Negative Factors
-31.2 ypg vs. draft class average — below class average-0.761
0.07 TDs/game — limited scoring role in college-0.477
Improvement accelerating (+16.1) — getting better faster each year-0.464